Friday, February 29, 2008

Caps Trade Analysis

A couple people posed questions about the recent Caps transactions. I was out of the country and missed the next trade deadline for the first time in 20 years. I expected the Caps to stand pat and freaked (in a good way) when I finally got online to see what transpired. My thoughts...

Huet
Of all of them, I think the Huet acquisition is the most complex and interesting. So you ask, "Who will stay at the end of the season?"

I've been thinking long and hard about it and have no friggin' clue. I was chatting with Peaker about this (on the phone, because apparently he hasn't figured out how to use a computer yet). He thinks Olie is gone while I'm of the opinion that the Caps are more likely to show more a little more loyalty to Olie.

However, I think loyalty comes at a price. If they can sign Huet, and then sign Olie for cheap, they'll buy out Johnson. If Olie's pride gets the better of him, he'll walk and they keep Johnson for the last year of his contract. If they can't sign Huet, I think Machesney will get a serious look in camp.

I think it all rests on Huet and on how he feels about Washington's treatment of him and their future. If I were a betting man, which I ain't, he'll resign because it's a perfect situation for a 32 year old goalie... young team, will be really competitive for several more years, good ownership. After that the Caps will do what they feel is best for the organization. Does "best" mean "show loyalty to a great team guy that is a fan favorite" or "get the better bargain by paying a guy for games he'll actually play at an NHL level equal to many starters"?

Fedorov
I've been waiting for Sergei to become a Cap since... forever. Now it may be too late for him to really have a serious impact but it's entirely possible that he can rack up 15 points over the last 20 games playing with the talent the Caps have. If he is interested in a paycut and playing right wing next year, there's a chance he could stick around, but I don't see that as very likely.

Cooke
With the return of a Hunter-esque player into the fold, I foresee the Caps regaining some of the Scrapitals swagger of the 80's and 90's where there was agitating players sprinkled throughout the lineup. For $400K more, I think he's an upgrade on Pettinger. After he lost his scoring touch, his only real assets were his PK and speed. Let's see how Cooke does before resigning him. He should feel he's auditioning for a pretty good team which can't hurt his performance.

Giroux
This is the one deal I didn't like. I happened to think Motzko was a pretty crafty player with good speed, a scoring touch, and was a decent checker. I think he was underutilized as a utility player and instead was asked to play top offensive minutes where he struggled. Some examples? 1. on the top line with Ovechkin and not being able to score in two games 2. Manning the PP point.

So, we ship Motzko off for a smallish, skilled forward prospect... just what we need. This is a move whereby George sees more long-term value in Giroux than Motzko. He's younger and can provide some offense to a team come the next trade deadline. It's smart, but I would have liked to have seen Joe get a better shot at a starting gig in the NHL.

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