Preseason Predictions

Everybody has predictions. They're kinda like opinions but with a little statistical proof and hunches thrown in for good measure. Last year I got 10 of 16 playoff teams correct (which isn't great) and the ones I got wrong, well, I was really wrong. For instance, Dallas finished 2nd in the conference, not 12th. Montreal finished 1st in the East, not 14th (ouch...). So in an attempt to redeem myself or else invite more rotten veggies to be tossed at me, here we go:

EASTERN CONFERENCE
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1. Montreal - I think the additions of Tanguay, Lang, and Laraque push these guys into the best spot in the East. I still don't see them being tough enough to go far in the post-season... (playoff predictions at the end).

2. Washington - I'm slightly biased but I think the Caps will win many, many SE division games and pile-up points. Some pundits argue that Huet single-handedly vaulted the team into the playoffs but the Caps under Bruce were on pace for over 100points over a whole season... with Olie and Johnson. A starting Theodore is an improvement anyway you look at it.

3. Philadelphia - This team has all the tools to make the finals but will be hampered by a stronger Atlantic division and end up with 3rd.

4. Pittsburgh - The Pens will still be a good team but are not nearly as deep as last year. They could seriously miss Conklin if Fleury goes down (look up Danny Sabourin's career numbers... scary). The loss of Whitney (and maybe Gonchar) could seriously hamper their season making even 4th place optimistic.

5. Ottawa - The Sens have not done enough in the offseason to seriously challenge for the division or conference. Gerber is a dependable regular season tender and the trade of Meszaros for 1/3 of Tampas defense (and arguably their best two d-men) was a brilliant stroke of blind luck.

6. Boston - They can win some tough battles and will have an underdog mentality about them again this year. The addition of Ryder, the return of Bergeron, and a more mature Kessel will give them more balanced scoring which was their worst enemy last year.

7. Buffalo - The Sabres should bounce back from their horrendous season. You can count on more consistent performances from Vanek and Roy. Afinogenov and Connoly must play better but the team will benefit from the addition of a solidifying force in Rivet.

8. New Jersey - As much as I don't believe they will make the post-season, I'd be a fool to count them out. This is what I've been hearing in my ear.... i'm pretty sure they're whispering Vegas ghosts (chriss.....don't bet against martin brodeur you foooool.....)

9. Carolina - I would have slotted them into the playoffs had they not lost Justin Williams. Brind'Amour is looking human as well and seems to be breaking down. Lastly I don't think Staal has the stamina to last an entire season as the center of the only scoring line.

10. NY Rangers - This team will be more streaky than last year (if that's possible). Making up the loss of Jagr and Straka with Zherdev and Naslund is akin to trying to replace a rifle with a bb-gun and a bent sight.

11. Florida - I think this team has the potential to make the playoffs with their new defense and a more consistent Vokoun. If this team starts hot, they could bump New Jersey or Buffalo out.

12. Tampa Bay - This team will be fun to watch but will allow many, many goals. I would predict them for a dead last finish but the quality of forwards and veterans on their team will help them persevere and fight down the stretch.

13, 14, 15. Toronto, Atlanta, NY Islanders - I know it's a cop-out to not actually rank these three but its rather like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. I'm not saying anything revelatory here. These teams are not good.


WESTERN CONFERENCE
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1. Detroit - They will once again make hay in the Central making them tough to catch. Putting Hossa on a top line with Datsyuk and Zetterberg is almost unfair.

2. Edmonton - This prediction is as bold as they come but I don't see a stronger team in the NW and the Pacific will cannibalize each other for points giving Edmonton #2.

3. Anaheim - The Ducks will return to form this year after their 2007 hangover. As this team will most likely get blown apart next year, look for changes if things aren't working out mid-season.

4. Dallas - Marty Turco is second only to Roberto Luongo in the West but has a much better cast. Much of their season rests on solid D but little defensive depth but excellent scoring depth up front.

5. San Jose - Another Pacific team that will finish just a couple points behind Anaheim and Dallas. Can they make the jump this year to become a true contender or will they streak and tease as they have for the last 3 years. Shark's fans will be circling the blood in the water if McClellan cannot push these guys to the next level.

6. Chicago - The kids will make the playoffs behind the best goalie tandem in the NHL and a very mobile attacking defense. This teams biggest detriment will be its lack of depth up front. The loss of Robert Lang makes this team too predictable with a single scoring line. Watch for early changes if they start slowly as Dale Tallon is forced to play some cards to move Khabibulin plus one of the coveted young defenseman (most likely Barker) to get scoring help.

7. Phoenix - Olli Jokinen's addition gives this team two very skilled scoring lines and excellent grit to boot. Their 3rd and 4th lines will be as tough as any in the league. Their defense has taken a step backwards in the Jokinen trade but is sufficient. As shown last year, if Bryzgalov remains healthy, this team gains confidence and will be even more exciting to watch.

8. Nashville - Can Dan Ellis handle the #1 tender duties without a solid #2 pushing him for starts? There defense is young, gritty, and mobile. Their forward core will sorely miss Radulov for the 30+ goals he would have provided but should manage enough goals to get them into the show.

9. Columbus - This will not be the year for Columbus. They have no glaring holes any longer but they also lack the talents to see the great upside. This team could be renamed "Rick Nash and Gnashers".

10. Minnesota - Brunette does not replenish the loss of Rolston and Demitra. This team could fall further than 10th.

11. Calgary - This team will also grind down opponents and have unfortunately put the onus of their season on the wonky back of Todd Bertuzzi. I expect an early spike in offensive production from this team and the new blood but Kiprusoff is a notorious slow starter which could mean early heartbreak. Combined with fan restlessness as the season progresses and this team could be a trainwreck.

12. Colorado - This team has overperformed for two straight years. Last spring their depth was seriously exposed against the Wings. This year, they've lost their best defensive asset, Theodore, and their offensive core is getting very gray.

13. St. Louis - This is another team that, like Colorado, has great offensive hopes pinned on the chests of a some older icons (Tkachuk and Kariya). Boyes, Stempniak, and McDonald must provide more offense and the new kids Berglund and Oshie must dominate for this team to have a prayer in the great and mighty West.

14. Vancouver - I'm still waiting for Gillis' big move. He may have flushed it at the beginning of the summer with the ill-conceived proposal to Mats "The Savior" Sundin.

15. Los Angeles - You have to admire a team that strips itself and starts again. Their defense is too weak to seriously contend and their goaltending is.... sporadic (that's the best I can say about). Hopefully the team figures out who is their goalie of the future by season's end: Ersberg or Bernier.


PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
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Eastern Finals - Capitals v Flyers
Western Finals - Anaheim v Detroit


STANLEY CUP FINAL
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CAPITALS V ANAHEIM (you had to know that was coming)