Friday, February 29, 2008

Caps Trade Analysis

A couple people posed questions about the recent Caps transactions. I was out of the country and missed the next trade deadline for the first time in 20 years. I expected the Caps to stand pat and freaked (in a good way) when I finally got online to see what transpired. My thoughts...

Huet
Of all of them, I think the Huet acquisition is the most complex and interesting. So you ask, "Who will stay at the end of the season?"

I've been thinking long and hard about it and have no friggin' clue. I was chatting with Peaker about this (on the phone, because apparently he hasn't figured out how to use a computer yet). He thinks Olie is gone while I'm of the opinion that the Caps are more likely to show more a little more loyalty to Olie.

However, I think loyalty comes at a price. If they can sign Huet, and then sign Olie for cheap, they'll buy out Johnson. If Olie's pride gets the better of him, he'll walk and they keep Johnson for the last year of his contract. If they can't sign Huet, I think Machesney will get a serious look in camp.

I think it all rests on Huet and on how he feels about Washington's treatment of him and their future. If I were a betting man, which I ain't, he'll resign because it's a perfect situation for a 32 year old goalie... young team, will be really competitive for several more years, good ownership. After that the Caps will do what they feel is best for the organization. Does "best" mean "show loyalty to a great team guy that is a fan favorite" or "get the better bargain by paying a guy for games he'll actually play at an NHL level equal to many starters"?

Fedorov
I've been waiting for Sergei to become a Cap since... forever. Now it may be too late for him to really have a serious impact but it's entirely possible that he can rack up 15 points over the last 20 games playing with the talent the Caps have. If he is interested in a paycut and playing right wing next year, there's a chance he could stick around, but I don't see that as very likely.

Cooke
With the return of a Hunter-esque player into the fold, I foresee the Caps regaining some of the Scrapitals swagger of the 80's and 90's where there was agitating players sprinkled throughout the lineup. For $400K more, I think he's an upgrade on Pettinger. After he lost his scoring touch, his only real assets were his PK and speed. Let's see how Cooke does before resigning him. He should feel he's auditioning for a pretty good team which can't hurt his performance.

Giroux
This is the one deal I didn't like. I happened to think Motzko was a pretty crafty player with good speed, a scoring touch, and was a decent checker. I think he was underutilized as a utility player and instead was asked to play top offensive minutes where he struggled. Some examples? 1. on the top line with Ovechkin and not being able to score in two games 2. Manning the PP point.

So, we ship Motzko off for a smallish, skilled forward prospect... just what we need. This is a move whereby George sees more long-term value in Giroux than Motzko. He's younger and can provide some offense to a team come the next trade deadline. It's smart, but I would have liked to have seen Joe get a better shot at a starting gig in the NHL.

Saturday, February 23, 2008

Caps v Canes 2/23/08 - redux

[shiver... groan... shakes off cloudy beer head]. Where to begin about that one? I could blame it on a couple of non-calls such as Staal waterskiing behind Ovechkin as he carried into the zone in the 2nd. Or I could blame it on Fleischmann missing two glorious wide open nets but neither sufficiently explain what happened in Raleigh tonight.

This game was about depth and persistence. Washington has one and half lines that can score regularly while Carolina has boasted three for the last three years. They are banged up currently but seem to still have two solid scoring lines. Their goaltending was better and the defense was about a wash. We were handicapped by Erskine and they by the loss of Wesley. (Does anybody feel that we might have fared better if Erskine got lost on his way back from the dressing room before the 2nd? Or maybe that we institute the "one named dumbass per team" rule?). The cutesy turnovers were terrible as we blindly threw pucks to the center of the ice but mostly we were beat by consistent pressure that led to defensive breakdowns and then to penalties.

Carolina played with resolve and showed character as they fought back after getting blown out in the first 10 minutes. The Caps effort highlighted the need for a true top-6 center rather than playing Kozlov who's better suited at the wing (on most nights).

Enough analysis. I'm done with it... it was just a very dissappointing game and I felt I had to vent but don't feel the need to go into too much depth. It's pretty simple. If the Caps want to make the second season (forget about doing something when if they make it) they need to win tough games. This was another tough game...

That's all my beer-fuddled head can handle. At least my fantasy team moved up from 4th to 2nd... woohoo!

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Introducing the Amazing (Mostly Naked) Chicken Baby

I would like to take this time to introduce the Chicken Baby. You can call him "Chicken", "His Nakedness", or "the feathered freak". His job is to help the Melvis boys with their trade predictions. For instance, just two days ago he predicted that Modry would be traded from L.A. He was wrong however that in return L.A. would be compensated beyond a bag of two-week old Hostess Twinkies but we thought it would be wise to listen. How bad could he be? If I were a betting man, I would certainly pay more attention to a naked Chicken-mask toting baby, than an idiot like Eklund. Take it away Chicken...

Thanks Melvisdog for the introduction. Immediately I shall turn my attention to the Leafs. I foresee that the Mats Sundin saga will be decided by Cliff Fletcher as he shows that he's got the new NHL figured out. He will auction Mats to the rest of the league on eBay with a starting bid of $4.25 and no reserve. After San Jose wins with a winning bid of $55.90 and a first rounder, Mats will protest that his no trade clause does not allow him to move to a team with less than 14 Swedes. Mats subsequently will be tossed out of Ontario by a mob of angry Leafs fans hopeful that the new GM knows how to use a 1st round pick.

I foresee that Darcy Tucker will express his desire to remain in Toronto for the 78th time to the press. I also foresee that he will inexplicably self-combust when he's asked about the rumor sending him to Edmonton for 12 first round draft picks. I foresee many happy non-Leaf fans.


Moving to the south into New York, I foresee that the Rangers will find no takers for Jaromir Jagr and will be content to dump him to the Czech's National Women's Team for a nice cream rinse and bath gels.

Upon hearing he will not be traded this year for the first time in more than a decade, Mike Sillinger will demand a trade from the Islanders because of family issues. Upon further investigation, the league will discover the Sillinger kids have a racketeering business turning a tidy profit at the local schools of Nassau County. The cities of St. Louis, Nashville, and Columbus, being leary of a Sillinger return, pitch in draft choices to send the family to New Jersey where Lou Lamiorello is always looking for creative ways to improve his roster. It also ensures that the kids find a nurturing environment for their new "hobby".

Dean Lombardi will discover that his 'showcase' of Dan Cloutier has not attracted any buyers to take the forelorn goaltender off his hands. Upon hearing he is being returned to Manchester, Cloutier goes AWOL eventually being found on the L.A. beaches where his skills are more appreciated.

And finally, Jay Feaster's active shopping of Brad Richards results in a trade to Calgary for a 4th round pick in 2016. However, Feaster is only able to make this deal by getting Brad to waive his no trade clause, become a live-in volunteer at a Calgary hospital, a rodeo clown in the Stampede, and donate his Florida home to a Calgary vacation agency. Apparently, they expect him to work for $7.8 mil per season.

Sunday, February 17, 2008

A Crack in the Trade Deadline Plan

With nine days left before the trade deadline, I don't see a whole lot of opportunity for deadline fireworks unless you start looking at the GMs various personalities and the situations they find themselves in. As you may know, the deadline for trading a player from one team to another is 2:59:59PM EST on February 26th. After 3:00, teams are bound to use whatever assets they have under prior contract. The teams that acquire new assets before the deadline (Buyers) are those that need an extra push to make a playoff run while those that trading away talent for picks and prospects (Sellers) typically do not have much of a hope of making the offseason dance.

The three points awarded for teams going into overtime coupled with the new salary cap has bunched most teams to within arms' reach of the postseason. Currently every team but one is within 8 points of the last playoff spot in their division. A 4-game winning streak timed extremely well with everybody in front of you falling flat and BOOM you're in. This is what happened to the Islanders last year so it's not impossible... improbable, yes, but not impossible.

Ultimately this parity leads us to a deadline where almost everybody is a buyer and very few are sellers. It's like a town of crackheads walking around convulsing with snot running down there face looking for a fix. These crackheads will find nothing but heartache as they search for their hookup because all but the Maple Leafs and L.A. Kings are still in the "buyer" position. The L.A. Kings are the furthest out at 13 points back and must be resigned to their chances. The Leafs threw in the towel when they hired Cliff Fletcher to dismantle the mess that John Ferguson Jr. created with his insane long term deals. However, the Leafs' most valuable assets all have the dreaded "NTC" next to their employee ID on the Toronto payroll. "NTC" means "No Trade Clause" and is the equivalent of taking the hands of the crackdealer, cutting them off, and cauterizing the stumps. Poor Fletcher will most likely be run out of town by an angry mob at the end of his temporary contract if he cannot improve the team.

If Fletcher gets really desperate, he may be able to deal away Sundin, Tucker, or McCabe through some creativity. But it's likely he will get fleeced having to take back expensive players without an "NTC" or package his own picks or prospects with his refuse. Its a bit like giving the garbage man a big tip to take your operable refridgerator off the curb after failing to sell it at the yardsale.

This means that L.A. is the sole possessor of anything of value that can be traded. Little, dirty, crumbly, baking soda riven crackrocks like like Rob Blake, Michael Handzus, and Kyle Calder are suddenly the only fix at the party and the junkies are drooling . Only the baddest, most desperate, and aggressive of crackheads will score with these rocks.

Top 4 Crackheads by Severity
  1. Lou Lamoriello (NJ Devils) - Lou doesn't make deals unless he feels he's got a chance at winning the whole nine. Rumors have him looking for a center. His moves are wise and typically not shortsighted (a la Mogilny and Malakov). Judicious junkies like Lou that like getting high but still know how to keep their jobs are known as a "White-collar Crackheads".
  2. Darryl Sutter (Calgary Flames) - You don't get Mike Keenan as a coach and then start a 5-year rebuild plan. The Flames are a strong, balanced team with elite goaltending that could use a top-6 player. Keenans and Sutter will covet the "Noonan crack" i.e. a depth guy at the end of career that he can make a hero. Maybe that person is already in place as Owen Nolan.
  3. Doug Wilson (San Jose Sharks) - There seems to be immense pressure on this franchise to win now. I think it's a bit premature considering they're still one of the youngest teams in the league, but I think they'll make at least one move to silence fans and critics. I could see them making a trade with their Montreal buddies and swapping out Marleau for Mark Streit. We call this willingness to bow to external forces a "Pipe Hittin by Peer Pressure Crackhead".
  4. Glen Sather (NY Rangers) - Nobody can count him out of the crack race. While his unwieldy heavy ship is taking on water, he can be counted upon to buy an iceberg and place it front-and-center on deck. He's a "drooling, crappin' his pants junkie" of the Nth degree.

Saturday, February 16, 2008

Caps v Bolts - Postgame

Just made it back to the homestead. 1h 30m door to door isn't too bad and well worth it. I only get to see 2-3 games Caps games per year including one up in DC around Christmas and a weekender in Tampa so the drive is easily justified. Nevermind... the game.

It was a decent game except for the 10 minutes at the end of the second and that minute at the end of the third that almost doomed them. That second period breakdown was like watching a quarter spiral down one of those charity blackhole games where it starts really wide and slow then tightens to a really fast circle then disappears? No? Okay I was cursing and squirming for 10 minutes waiting for the walls to collapse. But Olaf saved the day. He was square and perfect and didn't seemed rattled by the shaky start he had in the first and second.

The two quickies by the Bolts at the end of the game had the Forum shaking. The crowd noise was still at a stupid level when Semin stuffed in the rebound that made it 3-2. It was very surreal as all the Bolts fans sat at once and the Caps fans stood in unison. That was my only yell of the game. A pure knee-jerk fist pump scream. We need more of those ugly beautiful goals.

I'll have to watch the DVR of the game tomorrow to really look at what I think I saw from Lepisto, but he seemed pretty solid, took a couple of shots, and made a pretty slap pass. Erskine was a danger to his own team. Can we take out "Own Goal" insurance on him? It goes like this, we spot the opposition a goal before the game starts and have to pick one bonehead. If we pick Erskine, for instance, any goals that result from that player's head being lodged temporarily in his own ass, don't count. You would think the opposition would jump at this. True, but so would the Caps.

Laing was a stud (welcome back). The first Tampa goal was plain ole' ring around the rosey. You know, run in circles then all fall down. The second was Ovechkin's fault for not picking up the break-out from Olie who relayed it perfectly up the boards to where the LEFT FRICKIN WING should be waiting. Instead, the puck made it to the pinching defenseman who pushed it in and soon enough it was BLOWHORN city. It was at that point I saw the season collapsing which explains why the primordial yell was so needed on the Caps go ahead marker on the next shift. I think I even hugged the guy next to me.

Funny aside... I got a call at 3:00 minutes into the third from Peaker (you know, the other blogger on the site who doesn't blog). He didn't know I was attending the game and he says, "Hey, you're at the game. I just walked into my living room and saw you on TV."

Now, it's late but I'm going to see if I can change Peaker's name to Hide-n-Peeker or maybe Phone-n-Peeker, he can dial a number and have blog entries transcribed by a blogger secretary.

Caps v Bolts - end

WOOHOO!

More tomorrow.

Caps v Bolts - end of 2nd

Whew. We look like poo right now. Olie started shaky but he is keeping us in it. The Bolts missed some glorious chances but the rebounds are staying clear. Morrisonn wa pounded twice near us by Vinny and Tarnasky. We need to step it up in the 3rd or we will lose this one.

This message was sent using PIX-FLIX Messaging service from Verizon Wireless!

Caps v Bolts - end of 1st

After starting slow, the Caps carried the play. Lepisto doesn't look out of place and did nice on the 2 on 1 at the start. What's up with our inability to score on 2 on 1? Can't complain too much because Flah eventually got it. Lots of Caps fans nearby to hi five after the goal. Perimeter boy had a couple of strong shifts. Laich is really fast on the D he's playing against. Look for him to have one.

Caps v Bolts - pregame

We got SWEET seats! 11 rows up behind the Bolts bench strattling the blue line. The scalper was quite pleasant but traffic caused us to miss all but the minute of the warm-up. Ovie was last off and shot a full-courter missing wide. I hope that portends nothing bad.

Scratches are Fehr and Jurcina. Olie in net. Lepisto is in. Sweet. Stay tuned.

Cats/Caps Recap-- plus Melvisdog live from the SPTF

While wearing my Ovechkin jersey, I will attempt to send live blogging reports directly from my scalped seats someplace from inside enemy territory. My wife, father-in-law, and myself will be making the journey across Central Florida, risking death...er peril.... er ridicule...um, bad thoughts and glances maybe to bring you the most-up-to-the-minute coverage of the Caps v. Tampa 2/16/2008 from the St. Pete Time's Forum.

This should be a good game as Tampa is 6-3-1 in their last 10 while the Caps are 5-4-1. The Caps have lost two in a row for the first time since November which should make them play a pretty feisty, no-holds-barred game (Note: this is not an endorsement to Shaone Morrisonn to hold people whenever possible...coughatlantacoughgame). I expect a good tilt all the way around as the Caps will clutch to their precarious 3rd place while the 'Ning try to pull themselves up.

We, hopefully, will see the premier of Sami Lepisto and the return of the Donald. I'm not sure who they will sit for him, but judging from last night's performance in Sunset, there are many choices. Laing played a physical, drive-the-net, block some shots game that I love to see; Bradley played pretty well in the same mode. Ovie was double-teamed giving Fleischmann a chance to shine, which he did nicely. Backstrom continues to amaze me with his forecheck and puck possession. His game last night was mostly a north/south affair which makes me think he's wearing down a bit not looking to make some of those hard cuts. Semin NEEDS a center to get him the puck in an open space to make him effective. I thought he did well with what he was given.

On the opposite site of my favor were Matt 'Perimeter' Pettinger. The man can absolutely fly out there but he runs so fast around the outside of the play with the puck that its a given that a nudge will make him wipe out. He's definitely lost that driving confidence that made him an in tight scoring threat in the last couple of years.

Eric Fehr's skating is so haphazardous he reminds me of a clothed, newly-born horse whose clothing has been lit on firej and must be taken off while he skates. It amazes me that he doesn't get a high-sticking penalty on every shift. I like his speed, grit, and determination but there's a ton of wasted energy out there.

Gordon, Laich, and Steckel had solid, unspectacular games. I thought Laich could have generated a little more with his speed towards the end of the game. Steckel and Gordon's defense-first mentality is a harbinger for no goals every time they touch the ice. Kozlov was a non-factor which is a shame considering his play of late.

On the defensive side, I thought Schultz played very well. Green was everywhere but took some shortcuts to conserve energy. Eminger was effective in his limited role. Erskine looked overmatched against the top line. Morrisonn was left alone far too much in the defensive zone as his partner raced up ice leading to scoring chances and goals. Somebody needs to buy Jurcina some of those new heated skate blades to get his feet out of the quicksand that seems to immobilize him on some nights.

My conclusion? (Does anybody care?) Start Flash up with the 1st line but be prepared to put Kozlov up there after the first. Bruce needs to find two hard forechecking lines that can get behind Tampa's young defensive core and score some ugly ones. Make Green play defense, conserve energy, and give him orders NOT to challenge beyond the opposing blue line unless he can see only the goalie. He can feign offense but then give Lepisto the 'Go' signal. Once they start paying attention to Lepisto then send Green later in the game. That's the O-Plan. On the D side, Morrisonn should punish Vinny and throw him off. He's very effective when he does this. Limit St. Louis and Prospal to the outside with a fleet of foot 2nd d-man ... i.e. Green who is playing real D. Keep their other lines to the Pettinger...um perimeter, and voila, it's in the bag.

More from Tampa after I get to my seat...

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

I hate Dan Snyder

I wrote a big article/rant/drunken diatribe about the evil that is Dan Snyder when I read that he had dismissed Gregg Williams, now I don't care so much. Read between the lines in these articles by some unlucky WaPo writers that must cover the Redskins. Jason LaCanfora says:
Williams's candidacy, during which he'd interviewed four times, was endorsed by many Redskins players, former coach and team president Joe Gibbs and a large number of the team's fans, hundreds of whom posted angry messages on various Internet message boards backing him for the job and decrying the decision.
Everybody has to dance around the elephant in the room that is the Washington coverage of the Redskins...especially when it involves criticizing Citizen Dan (there's a rumored tar pit in Greenbelt filled with the bones of missing Washington sportswriters). You gotta feel for Jason as he dances nimbly between spilling his feelings and getting locked out of the inner circle (which is incidentally filled with only George Michael).
Mike Wise is a little more direct:
It's one thing to leave every outside candidate in the dark after they interview; it's quite another to not speak to the coach who stood by Taylor after each one of his minor transgressions, proclaiming over and over, "I'm a fan of Sean Taylor," while everyone else was doubting the youngster.
Will Dan get more ink about his professional or personal life than me? No doubt, I'm not claiming I'm any better or without flaws but I don't treat people like crap. When he's no longer with us or at the helm of the Skin's will people remember him fondly or just be happy that he'd gone? He's evil, I hate him. This is all true. But I was on the edge of swearing off the Redskins so I hesitated doing such a thing and decided to wait until the morning, then the next day, then the next week, and now it's a full two weeks later and I'm just numb. I love the Redskins/I hate the Snyder. When Snyder (and me) are old and/or dead, the Washington Redskins will live on and he will be footnoted satanic commandant with a noteworthy Napoleon complex.

Saturday, February 9, 2008

If Jagr were "Jagr the Blogger"

Hi, this is Jaromir coming to you 'live' from the internet. Actually, it's not 'live' because I've already typed it, kinda and you are reading it after. But it's 'live' to me (I crack myself up... I'm laughing). If I don't make you laugh, you should know that I really don't care about you. This blogging this is new and kinda cool. I normally only use the internet for gambling and finding women but I will try this once and hope not to disappoint. Normally, I try to only disappoint on the ice, but today I will try to disappoint in blogger world (that's a joke, I'm funny).

Let's see... what about me... hmm. Oh, today I played a very an uninspired game of hockey against my old team, the Washington Capitals. I cannot help it that I play it bad. I saw Nyls before the game and it made me sad again. Plus I didn't like Washington very much as the team wanted to surround me with hard-working types that made me look bad. I don't like to look bad which is why I spend serious money on my hair-stylist. In Washington, I told the press everyday that I was "happy and cannot explain why I play bad". This was my "I just can't be satisfied" whine. It makes GMs feel that you are about to mentally crumble and that they should sell you quickly for a bag of pucks and a Dolly Parton CD compilation.

George McPhee did that for me, sending me to the Rangers who I wanted to play for all the time. I liked them so much and I knew it already.... I mean I didn't know that I REALLY liked them yet, but... I will shut up already.

New York is a great place where building are really tall, legal gambling is a pretty close drive, and I can have anonymous sex with men in park. The fans loved me for a time but now the people are starting to treat me not so nice. I try to play better but they would not sign my slow playmaking center Nylander to a contract extension and it is their fault I play badly. I cannot blame me if they do not surround me with at least 5 Czechs, two interpreters, a snow cone machine in my apartment, and a playmaking center that likes slow play like me. Now the fans, they boo me here too, but I don't care. I'm going to Russia to play next year with my buddy Yashin. To all those who bought my sweater, screw you, I'm rich, beootch.

Saturday, February 2, 2008

Good ju-ju from bad musings

A couple items on this fine Saturday:

  1. Damn. The boy's DO read my junk as evidenced by their 5-4 victory over Les Bleu blanc et rouge. I said Ovechkin has an 'off-game' by his standards and he gets biblical calling on the four horsemen and doom and end of the world craziness. He has powers beyond my reckoning. Where did this conjuring of god-like will start, you wonder? Well, I wonder too.
  2. Everybody please welcome "The Legend of Pat Peake" to Melvis the Snowdog. He will be contributing to the site... at some point, I guess. If fact, Peaker, when were you planning on contributing?
  3. A 4 point night on the sked against Atlanta at the Verizon Center tonight. If you're in DC, go to the game and trash the Thrash.
  4. Items from around the blogosphere that are worth seeing:

And lastly....

  • A Jon Kordic tribute (this is part 2 but part 1 wasn't as fun)