Three Home-at-Homes

I hope the 5-3 'come from behinder' on the Thrash becomes symbolic of the Caps season as a whole. It was an inspirational display of our young talent settling for nothing less than a victory. However, these last 6 games will require a more consistent effort than the 20 minutes of domination on displayed Friday. These 6 games are the definition of a stretch run. We play 3 teams twice and none of these games will be easy. No let's examine a thoroughly depressing set of circumstances and then tell me how big were those 3 points we handed the Bruins last week?

The teams above us that we are aiming to catch are the Flyers, the Bruins, and (if we're all smoking the same crack pipe) Carolina. The B's and Flyers have 2 more points than us and have a game at hand which means we need to win two more games than either of them to tie them in points. We have 6 games and they have 7. Looking at each of their division-loaded schedules, I can see a rosy-tinted best case scenario of one of them winning only 2 games. The Bruins play the Sabres twice while the Flyers play the Isles twice. Their other opponents all have better records and are in the playoffs. If one of them can only squeak out 4 more points, they will finish with 88 points. It could happen to one of them, right?

If you're still thinking we can win the Southeast, the Canes have a 5 point lead and are even with games played. They play the Caps twice, the Thrash, the Panthers, and two against the 'Ning. A realistic (and still rose-tinted) scenario for them is to assume they beat the Thrash and 'Ning and lose to the Panthers and Caps. That gives them 6 more points for a total of 93.

Therefore of the remaining 6 games, I figure the Caps NEED to win 4 to have an WAY OUTSIDE chance of slipping in accidentally by tying the B's or Flyers with 88. The chances of hitting 94 points to beat Carolina are as likely as a Don Cherry becoming Hillary Clinton's running mate. Therefore, let's look at these last three home-at-homes.

Carolina - We don't seem to know which injury to wish upon them next. As of 3/18, they have lost 287 games to injury including their #1 center Rod Brind'amour. They have lost Matt Cullen, Justin Williams, and Ray Whitney as well. Their defense, however, has been solid enough that they could afford the trade of Mike Commodore without missing a beat. Of their defense corps, only Tanabe has lost significant time due to a concussion. Some would argue that this injury in fact helps their team defense. I'm not going to touch that topic. Wait a sec... I think I just did.

Florida - Their team is similar in maturity to the Caps, plus they've lost 327 games to injury (so no whining about how the Caps have been decimated). You can look at the last two months of theirs as the mirror image of the Caps rise to the spotlight during December and January. Suddenly, they're playing 60 minutes and getting contributions from the young stars as well as some of their depth players. Their goaltending has been rock solid and as a whole they look very dangerous. Regardless of what time of the year we play the Panthers, the Caps cannot beat them. So now that they are playing well, are our chances any better? Umm...

Tampa Bay - They are playing the role of spoiler and playing to the wire of every game (unlike Atlanta who seems to mail it in for the majority of their games). They will be dangerous, especially in their own barn and the Caps cannot look past these games. I will attend the Caps in Tampa again as my presence last time seemed to will them along to a surprise victory when all the chips were down. If you believe that one...

I don't really have a conclusion other than, I don't plan on the Caps making the playoffs. I'm a believer in this team from a long-term standpoint but I'm a realist about the nature of the rest of the league right now. But please, please prove me wrong.