What the hell is happening?

Where has Melvis been you may ask yourself... or not. Probably not. In case you're wondering, one word, SUFFERING. This season was to be all Caps glory, all Caps fever sweeping its way across the globe... (sigh). Instead I've seen some pretty inconsistent play over the last month. In general, all the Caps fall into three categories.

1. Awake and Kicking Ass - These are players that are keeping everybody afloat -- Semin, Flash, Nylander, Fedorov, Poti, Bradley, Johnson, Laich -- and they need NO discussion.
2. Awake and Groggy - There are also those that are playing well but are not being rewarded such as Ovi, Brashear, Gordon, Steckel. These players have a consistency about their game and are also of little concern.
3. Still Asleep - The rest, however, look like they're in their pajamas. That said, I'm beginning to see signs of life from the boys as several of their key players seem to have woke from their summer slumber so I'll start with them...

Just woke up and running for the Bus
Victor Kozlov - He played with determination against Carolina that he would no longer be pushed off the puck and when he did lose the puck, he hustled to backcheck and get he puck back. He was pucking good in other words.

Nick Backstrom - Perhaps the most disappointing Cap in my mind woke up on Thursday. He looks like he's been slowed by his ankle and maybe 10 pounds of cupcakes (nice moobs). I've been dissecting his game more than any other so far as he's missed the explosiveness and skating stride of last year. Thus, my wife was shocked that I traded for him immediately after the Canes game. Teemu for Nick... oh dear what in God's name am I thinking. Nick, you better not get tired, lay down, and hit the snooze button. Keep running and lose them cupcakes.

John Erskine - I've always admired Erskine's toughness and pure craziness but wished for him to harness it for good (steady intimidating toughness on the puck and around the net), rather than evil (bad penalties, goes out of way to make punishing hits, etc). His last two games have been perhaps his best as a Cap. I hope he keeps it up because little else from the D stalwarts has gone right.

Almost awake
Chris Clark - He's huffing and puffing and trying hard but seems to have lost his positioning and ability to receive a pass, and get the shot off. Clark won't dazzle you with a sleight of hand, pull the puck off the half wall, walk in front and rip one topshelf, so we should stop kidding ourselves. If Chris wants to be known as a goal scorer, he needs to drive the net consistently when he's on a top line or the PP. He needs to get down low, look for rebounds and be ready to sacrifice teeth, fingers, kidneys, and ears if he wants goals. If he's not in a position to score, he needs to understand his role and plug away. He seems like he's coming around.

Milan Jurcina - I've liked Jurcina ever since he was a Bruin getting 6 minutes a night. Actually that's a lie. I've liked Jurcina ever since I opened $10 pack of 2005 Upper Deck Premiere Hockey Cards (these were the ones that purportedly contained small strands of Ovechkin DNA in every 100,000th pack). So I shelled out for about 30 of these things and all I got was a bit of Milan Jurcina fingernail (Yes, you are correct, I wasn't married yet and No, probabilities and mathematics were never a strength). Now, I'm a fan and he's not terrible (like he was in the Philly series). That's it. Go Milan!

Missed the Alarm
Eric Fehr - I need to see more of him to make a proper judgement but this was to be his year and he's sleeping through it. There's a hungry Finn in the "A" that's waiting for that spot as well...

Mike Green - I believe he's playing with an bum wheel which is limiting his ability to skate backwards. He has three forward gears and only one reverse which makes any issues with that one reverse a big problem... at least for a player who's primary responsibility should be defense. He hasn't shown consistently that he's able to get back and remain effective.

Shoane Morrissonn - I don't know what has happened to his game but I can only think it's his confidence or the lingering effects of a rough post-season. He needs a scrap, a goal, or a new girlfriend... something. I hope its just his confidence suffering and he has a chance to get out of his funk. Outside the goalie, the Caps nation relies on him more than any other player to keep the opposition off the scoresheet.

Go Ahead and Kick Him, But I Think He's Dead
Jose Theodore - Maddeningly ill-equipped to handle the puck. Gaping 5-Hole. Tentative as a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs. If he can make it past the first period, he's pretty athletic and stops the pucks he should. However, his early play reminds me of Kolzig after Huet appeared last year. Kolzig lost his mojo and began playing a more panicked, less-disciplined game after Huet came probably as a result of knowing his job was in serious jeopardy. I wanted to give Jose the benefit of the doubt, but now I doubt the benefits... huh?

Jeff Schultz - I've tried really hard to like Schultz but nobody gets knocked off the puck by forecheckers more than Jeff. Nobody gets blown by standing flat-footed more then Jeff. I read that he added 10 pounds of muscle in the offseason to become a more physical player, which I thought was terrific. If we could just get all those pesky opposing forwards to stand still so Jeff can hit him, we'll be in good shape.

Playing with the 2008-2009 Roster

I built a spreadsheet with Excel and imported it into Google Spreadsheets to help calculate the 2008-2009 opening night roster and it's cost. Currently, the Capitals have 14 people signed for next season. This number does not reflect UFAs (currently with Caps and those not) and RFAs.

Directions to use the spreadsheet:

1. Choose to "Edit this spreadsheet" by clicking on the link at the bottom of the page (permissions should be open)
2. To add a player to roster place a "1" next to their name in the "On Roster" column
3. If you're adding an RFA or UFA, be sure to give them a salary that they're worth for next season.
4. Be sure the Roster total number equals between 20 and 23 with rightful position totals represented
5. Keep the salary cap as low as possible AND get the best team

Giving Green a conservative bump to $5.5m and keeping Huet at around $5m, I'm getting a number around $54m which is awfully darn close to the expected salary cap. Will GM be spending that high or will assets need to be "shifted"? It should make for an interesting off-season.

Have fun.

(Thanks to NHLSCAP for the salary data).

Time to Drink a Beer and Chill Out

Flyers Series Recap
In retrospect, the flyers played a good series all the way around. I thought they were the more consistent team during the series and were the beneficiaries of the majority of the tight calls. A fan can whine about the calls and that's okay because its a defense mechanism much like the objects tossed on the ice are a sign of abject pain than a lack of respect for the Flyers (maybe with the exception of Briere). But I think once the pain goes away, you begin to realize that:

1. The Caps were seriously outplayed in the first three games yet stole one
2. The Flyers were too good to rollover for three straight games
3. Received stellar goaltending from Biron when it mattered most
4. Took advantage of mistakes; their Power Play was flawless

I think every Caps fan that knows the difference between a charge and a boarding call would take Mike Richards or Jeff Carter on the team in a Flash (heh, heh). If you ever listen to a player that has won the Stanley Cup, the three things they say that allowed them to prevail over other good teams are: consistency, team depth, and luck. Of those three, the Caps only had one in the first series. With better consistency next year, we'll make our own luck.

Sidenote: Capitals fans must notice the irony of game 1 of the Montreal-Philly game as the Flyers outplayed Montreal, but lost the game because of some perceived poor refereeing. Those that live in glass houses...

The End of the Season
Actually, now is the time when I don't need 5-6 beers per Caps game because quite simply, they don't exist. Now I can enjoy a single beer, relax, sleep easier and go about my day thinking about other things than Caps hockey. Some would find this peaceful and relaxing, I think it stinks.

I'm looking forward towards the draft, free agency, training camp, and opening night (in that order). Those dates are like vacations that seem so far away right now but you know will be here before you know it.

Decision Time
This offseason is perhaps the most important one in the club's rise from rebuild-to-juggernaut. Basing my figures from various sources such as NHLSCAP.com and the NHLPA, I figure the Caps paid out about $44M in salary this year (including Jagr). With the new contracts kicking in for Semin and Ovie, the Caps are already committed to $38M for next year before you factor in all the UFAs and RFAs on their current roster. Meaning that the $38M doesn't include a starting netminder (Olie or Huet), Mike Green, Brooks Laich, Boyd Gordon, Matt Bradley, Matt Cooke, Eminger, Morrisonn, Fehr, or Sergei Fedorov.

My quick take is that it's going to very difficult to sign everybody under the cap and have the requisite wiggle room that smart teams keep. This will lead to difficult decisions around the higher paid unsigned players such as Green, Fedorov, and Huet. My assumption here obviously is that Green will be one of the top paid players next year and should command a great deal of attention going into free agency if the Capitals do not get him under contract quickly. More on this later.