Playing with the 2008-2009 Roster

I built a spreadsheet with Excel and imported it into Google Spreadsheets to help calculate the 2008-2009 opening night roster and it's cost. Currently, the Capitals have 14 people signed for next season. This number does not reflect UFAs (currently with Caps and those not) and RFAs.

Directions to use the spreadsheet:

1. Choose to "Edit this spreadsheet" by clicking on the link at the bottom of the page (permissions should be open)
2. To add a player to roster place a "1" next to their name in the "On Roster" column
3. If you're adding an RFA or UFA, be sure to give them a salary that they're worth for next season.
4. Be sure the Roster total number equals between 20 and 23 with rightful position totals represented
5. Keep the salary cap as low as possible AND get the best team

Giving Green a conservative bump to $5.5m and keeping Huet at around $5m, I'm getting a number around $54m which is awfully darn close to the expected salary cap. Will GM be spending that high or will assets need to be "shifted"? It should make for an interesting off-season.

Have fun.

(Thanks to NHLSCAP for the salary data).

Time to Drink a Beer and Chill Out

Flyers Series Recap
In retrospect, the flyers played a good series all the way around. I thought they were the more consistent team during the series and were the beneficiaries of the majority of the tight calls. A fan can whine about the calls and that's okay because its a defense mechanism much like the objects tossed on the ice are a sign of abject pain than a lack of respect for the Flyers (maybe with the exception of Briere). But I think once the pain goes away, you begin to realize that:

1. The Caps were seriously outplayed in the first three games yet stole one
2. The Flyers were too good to rollover for three straight games
3. Received stellar goaltending from Biron when it mattered most
4. Took advantage of mistakes; their Power Play was flawless

I think every Caps fan that knows the difference between a charge and a boarding call would take Mike Richards or Jeff Carter on the team in a Flash (heh, heh). If you ever listen to a player that has won the Stanley Cup, the three things they say that allowed them to prevail over other good teams are: consistency, team depth, and luck. Of those three, the Caps only had one in the first series. With better consistency next year, we'll make our own luck.

Sidenote: Capitals fans must notice the irony of game 1 of the Montreal-Philly game as the Flyers outplayed Montreal, but lost the game because of some perceived poor refereeing. Those that live in glass houses...

The End of the Season
Actually, now is the time when I don't need 5-6 beers per Caps game because quite simply, they don't exist. Now I can enjoy a single beer, relax, sleep easier and go about my day thinking about other things than Caps hockey. Some would find this peaceful and relaxing, I think it stinks.

I'm looking forward towards the draft, free agency, training camp, and opening night (in that order). Those dates are like vacations that seem so far away right now but you know will be here before you know it.

Decision Time
This offseason is perhaps the most important one in the club's rise from rebuild-to-juggernaut. Basing my figures from various sources such as NHLSCAP.com and the NHLPA, I figure the Caps paid out about $44M in salary this year (including Jagr). With the new contracts kicking in for Semin and Ovie, the Caps are already committed to $38M for next year before you factor in all the UFAs and RFAs on their current roster. Meaning that the $38M doesn't include a starting netminder (Olie or Huet), Mike Green, Brooks Laich, Boyd Gordon, Matt Bradley, Matt Cooke, Eminger, Morrisonn, Fehr, or Sergei Fedorov.

My quick take is that it's going to very difficult to sign everybody under the cap and have the requisite wiggle room that smart teams keep. This will lead to difficult decisions around the higher paid unsigned players such as Green, Fedorov, and Huet. My assumption here obviously is that Green will be one of the top paid players next year and should command a great deal of attention going into free agency if the Capitals do not get him under contract quickly. More on this later.

A Crack in the Trade Deadline Plan

With nine days left before the trade deadline, I don't see a whole lot of opportunity for deadline fireworks unless you start looking at the GMs various personalities and the situations they find themselves in. As you may know, the deadline for trading a player from one team to another is 2:59:59PM EST on February 26th. After 3:00, teams are bound to use whatever assets they have under prior contract. The teams that acquire new assets before the deadline (Buyers) are those that need an extra push to make a playoff run while those that trading away talent for picks and prospects (Sellers) typically do not have much of a hope of making the offseason dance.

The three points awarded for teams going into overtime coupled with the new salary cap has bunched most teams to within arms' reach of the postseason. Currently every team but one is within 8 points of the last playoff spot in their division. A 4-game winning streak timed extremely well with everybody in front of you falling flat and BOOM you're in. This is what happened to the Islanders last year so it's not impossible... improbable, yes, but not impossible.

Ultimately this parity leads us to a deadline where almost everybody is a buyer and very few are sellers. It's like a town of crackheads walking around convulsing with snot running down there face looking for a fix. These crackheads will find nothing but heartache as they search for their hookup because all but the Maple Leafs and L.A. Kings are still in the "buyer" position. The L.A. Kings are the furthest out at 13 points back and must be resigned to their chances. The Leafs threw in the towel when they hired Cliff Fletcher to dismantle the mess that John Ferguson Jr. created with his insane long term deals. However, the Leafs' most valuable assets all have the dreaded "NTC" next to their employee ID on the Toronto payroll. "NTC" means "No Trade Clause" and is the equivalent of taking the hands of the crackdealer, cutting them off, and cauterizing the stumps. Poor Fletcher will most likely be run out of town by an angry mob at the end of his temporary contract if he cannot improve the team.

If Fletcher gets really desperate, he may be able to deal away Sundin, Tucker, or McCabe through some creativity. But it's likely he will get fleeced having to take back expensive players without an "NTC" or package his own picks or prospects with his refuse. Its a bit like giving the garbage man a big tip to take your operable refridgerator off the curb after failing to sell it at the yardsale.

This means that L.A. is the sole possessor of anything of value that can be traded. Little, dirty, crumbly, baking soda riven crackrocks like like Rob Blake, Michael Handzus, and Kyle Calder are suddenly the only fix at the party and the junkies are drooling . Only the baddest, most desperate, and aggressive of crackheads will score with these rocks.

Top 4 Crackheads by Severity

1. Lou Lamoriello (NJ Devils) - Lou doesn't make deals unless he feels he's got a chance at winning the whole nine. Rumors have him looking for a center. His moves are wise and typically not shortsighted (a la Mogilny and Malakov). Judicious junkies like Lou that like getting high but still know how to keep their jobs are known as a "White-collar Crackheads".
   
2. Darryl Sutter (Calgary Flames) - You don't get Mike Keenan as a coach and then start a 5-year rebuild plan. The Flames are a strong, balanced team with elite goaltending that could use a top-6 player. Keenans and Sutter will covet the "Noonan crack" i.e. a depth guy at the end of career that he can make a hero. Maybe that person is already in place as Owen Nolan.
   
3. Doug Wilson (San Jose Sharks) - There seems to be immense pressure on this franchise to win now. I think it's a bit premature considering they're still one of the youngest teams in the league, but I think they'll make at least one move to silence fans and critics. I could see them making a trade with their Montreal buddies and swapping out Marleau for Mark Streit. We call this willingness to bow to external forces a "Pipe Hittin by Peer Pressure Crackhead".
   
4. Glen Sather (NY Rangers) - Nobody can count him out of the crack race. While his unwieldy heavy ship is taking on water, he can be counted upon to buy an iceberg and place it front-and-center on deck. He's a "drooling, crappin' his pants junkie" of the Nth degree.