Playing with the 2008-2009 Roster

I built a spreadsheet with Excel and imported it into Google Spreadsheets to help calculate the 2008-2009 opening night roster and it's cost. Currently, the Capitals have 14 people signed for next season. This number does not reflect UFAs (currently with Caps and those not) and RFAs.

Directions to use the spreadsheet:

1. Choose to "Edit this spreadsheet" by clicking on the link at the bottom of the page (permissions should be open)
2. To add a player to roster place a "1" next to their name in the "On Roster" column
3. If you're adding an RFA or UFA, be sure to give them a salary that they're worth for next season.
4. Be sure the Roster total number equals between 20 and 23 with rightful position totals represented
5. Keep the salary cap as low as possible AND get the best team

Giving Green a conservative bump to $5.5m and keeping Huet at around $5m, I'm getting a number around $54m which is awfully darn close to the expected salary cap. Will GM be spending that high or will assets need to be "shifted"? It should make for an interesting off-season.

Have fun.

(Thanks to NHLSCAP for the salary data).

Time to Drink a Beer and Chill Out

Flyers Series Recap
In retrospect, the flyers played a good series all the way around. I thought they were the more consistent team during the series and were the beneficiaries of the majority of the tight calls. A fan can whine about the calls and that's okay because its a defense mechanism much like the objects tossed on the ice are a sign of abject pain than a lack of respect for the Flyers (maybe with the exception of Briere). But I think once the pain goes away, you begin to realize that:

1. The Caps were seriously outplayed in the first three games yet stole one
2. The Flyers were too good to rollover for three straight games
3. Received stellar goaltending from Biron when it mattered most
4. Took advantage of mistakes; their Power Play was flawless

I think every Caps fan that knows the difference between a charge and a boarding call would take Mike Richards or Jeff Carter on the team in a Flash (heh, heh). If you ever listen to a player that has won the Stanley Cup, the three things they say that allowed them to prevail over other good teams are: consistency, team depth, and luck. Of those three, the Caps only had one in the first series. With better consistency next year, we'll make our own luck.

Sidenote: Capitals fans must notice the irony of game 1 of the Montreal-Philly game as the Flyers outplayed Montreal, but lost the game because of some perceived poor refereeing. Those that live in glass houses...

The End of the Season
Actually, now is the time when I don't need 5-6 beers per Caps game because quite simply, they don't exist. Now I can enjoy a single beer, relax, sleep easier and go about my day thinking about other things than Caps hockey. Some would find this peaceful and relaxing, I think it stinks.

I'm looking forward towards the draft, free agency, training camp, and opening night (in that order). Those dates are like vacations that seem so far away right now but you know will be here before you know it.

Decision Time
This offseason is perhaps the most important one in the club's rise from rebuild-to-juggernaut. Basing my figures from various sources such as NHLSCAP.com and the NHLPA, I figure the Caps paid out about $44M in salary this year (including Jagr). With the new contracts kicking in for Semin and Ovie, the Caps are already committed to $38M for next year before you factor in all the UFAs and RFAs on their current roster. Meaning that the $38M doesn't include a starting netminder (Olie or Huet), Mike Green, Brooks Laich, Boyd Gordon, Matt Bradley, Matt Cooke, Eminger, Morrisonn, Fehr, or Sergei Fedorov.

My quick take is that it's going to very difficult to sign everybody under the cap and have the requisite wiggle room that smart teams keep. This will lead to difficult decisions around the higher paid unsigned players such as Green, Fedorov, and Huet. My assumption here obviously is that Green will be one of the top paid players next year and should command a great deal of attention going into free agency if the Capitals do not get him under contract quickly. More on this later.

Recap: How Did We Get Here

Let's ask a question of you (oh wise beyond your years reader), how did the Capitals make it to this dance?

a. Did we squeak into the post-season on the brilliant play of Alex Ovechkin? Alex sold tickets, sold the refreshments, hired the band, was the emotional conduit, and was the emcee for the dance but he didn't break down the door.

b. Did we get to the post-season through our shutdown defense? Ha, ha. Not on your life.

c. Did we get into the playoffs because the team lost one game in its last thirteen? Did we get into the playoffs because Cristobal Huet has been unstoppable since the Backstrom own-goal? If you picked 'C', DING-DING-DING. You win a...well, nothing except a congratulations for your keen observations. (I'm not much for giving out prizes right now)

With that in mind, how the hell can you not defend Huet when Hartnell runs over the goalie and shoves his face into the ice?

I'm not the only one who noticed this treatment. From Philly.com this morning:

Bruce Boudreau is a little annoyed at all the traffic in front of goaltender Cristobal Huet, particularly Scott Hartnell, who drew a first-period penalty for goaltender interference. Hartnell steamrolled Huet and rubbed his face into the ice for good measure. "We know what they're doing," Boudreau said. "Sometimes you play a little safer in the playoffs. But we have to protect our own" . . .

Hartnell got two minutes for his work so it would have been a perfect opportunity for somebody to take him to task either with a couple of extra cross-checks or, god-forbid, a fight and take the instigator. As it was Huet was the only one giving Hartnell any extra abuse (and it was as lame as you may expect a goalie to dish out). Hartnell is a tough guy and admittedly, the personnel wasn't on the ice at that time that normally takes care of such things. However, there was a stretch in the second where Bruce matched up Brashear and Bradley against Hartnell line. The announcers were bemoaning the move as an advantage for the Flyers but they didn't understand Bruce's intentions. Nor, do I think, did Brashear and Bradley.

If the Caps continue to display such lack of grit, the series will soon be 1-3 and next Saturday our arena will be overrun with the Orange and Black goons from up the pike. They will serenade Hu-et, make derisive remarks about our ancestry, wear ill-fitting clothes, and be a general nuisance at the very least. At the very most, they will take what has become sanctified; our place of worship: a home ice that feels like home. Get it together fellas.

Important Goalie Weekend - B's and Pen's

I must first by eating some crow about Olie's game in Buffalo. My first reaction was "Damn, Olie's the man and I feel bad for saying/writing bad things." However, once I dissected the game with the sound off at half speed, I realized I was incorrect.

He played really well. He was positionally strong and consistent. However, there were several rebounds right into the slot that made me scream for more lithium. Fortunately the Dmen collapsed and shuffled the juicy ones into the corners or up the boards. The Forechecker found out some pretty disturbing data that has confirmed group observations all year. And in case you're wondering, I didn't really watched the game a second time with the sound off at half speed. Had I done that, I would have gladly taken my wife's Baker Act recommendation.

All in all, it was a very good road game by the Caps but one that relied to heavy on the counter-attack and defensive positioning. I don't believe these games are our strongest suit but may have been what was needed for Kolzig to have a positive game against a team that has made him look less than stellar in the last couple of seasons.

This weekend, the goaltending will be front and center in the debate once again.

Game 1: On Saturday, we walk into the wolf den that is the TD Banknorth/Fleet/Shawmut Garden Thingie where there will surely be a call for a blood sacrifice as the game commences. I expect them to dress Terry O'Reilly, Chris Nilan, and the corpse of Eddie Shore. So you pose the question, "how do we handle what will surely be a full onslaught for 20-30 minutes to start the game?"

Answer: With an acrobatic netminder that will make the first save and absorb rebounds when things get hairy: Huet.


Game 2: On Sunday, the Caps will host the Pens in what will surely be an emotional, highly contested affair as egos and skill clash in a North American Hockey Schmooze Bowl. The team that takes this game will take momentum and will solidify themselves as the media darling of the week. The loser, on the other hand, will feel the scorn of the local press, national press, and fans, like spectators standing too close to the poo tossing monkeys at the zoo. So the question here is, "which goaltender gives us the best chance to take the Schmooze Bowl?"

Answer: Huet

If both games are "must wins" (as they all seem to be in March), the real question is, "Can Huet start both games?" If not, the secondary question becomes, "Which game is more important?"

A New Era Begins

I posed the question yesterday about the prevailing logic of giving Olaf the nod against the Leafs after such a strong showing from Toronto by the French Wall that is Cristobal . After sifting through the reams of responses that were posted.... (ahem.... crickets) I'VE looked into the crystal ball (crysto-ball?.. heh, heh, nevermind) and discerned Boudreau's thinking:

1. Don't disenfranchise the franchise man -- The message was "You're still important, Olie. We need you. You are our rock. We are nothing if you are not something." [sniff] I think I'm going to cry.


2. It's Toronto -- How many times have the Caps played the backup this year as the opposition sees the game as a chance to rest the #1? Did we take the Leafs too lightly? Does Semin take a hooking penalty every second time he makes a turnover?


3. Back-t0-back games -- A chance to rest after Friday's stellar performance and make Olie fight for playing time.

During last night's game, while the team lacked desperation for an appreciable amount of the game, Olie looked panicked throughout. On easy saves, he fumbled several into the air and would flail to knock them out of harm's way. If he was out of position, he was made frantic dives to get back into the net. At one point in the third after a puck had been deflected up and over his head, he threw his arms into the air while looking at a retreating defenseman as if to say:

"I don't know where it is."
"I'm not at fault here."
"You can't blame me if I get scored upon because you deflected it someplace I can't see it."

Olie made several key stops up close including a mini breakaway by Tucker and then an uptight stuff on Tlusty. However, when the Leafs scored some of the blame falls squarely on the goalie. The Antropov deflection was impossible to stop. The onus of deflections have to fall on the D for not clearing out. The second goal could have been stopped but wasn't. I'm not saying it was a soft goal, but Sundin's bullet was a rising shot over the glove hand and Olie was on his knees. The third goal was riddled with problems but the mishaps began with Olie shooting the puck hard into the boards. It ricocheted off Morrisonn into the slot. Green and Fedorov playing Keystone cops didn't help the recovery. I chalk 1.5 goals against to the D and 1. 5 to the goalie.

A more appropriate title to this post may be, "The End of an Era". Whatever the title, the message is the same: Olie is now the #2 in Washington. It's the coach's job to put the players on the ice that give his team the best chance to win the game. I just don't see Olie fitting the definition of "starting goaltender" any longer.

Huet is the Man

I haven't written anything bad about Kolzig all year because I truly have always thought of him as an A#1 pro that is a positive in so many regards, but... crap, that game shows you what a timely save can do for your team. How many times this year have the Caps outplayed their opponents for 20-30 minutes and on the first good opportunity the other team gets they score? I can't tell you but I'd bet a decent chunk of a pot pie that it's more than 8 or 9 times.

Tonight, Huet shut the door when the game was still open and took home the win. I read on the WaPo board that BB will start Olie tomorrow and am very disappointed. Why?

Am I the only one that thinks that this is unnecessary? Is there a fear that Olie couldn't take being sat for two games in a row without blowing a fuse?

Caps Trade Analysis

A couple people posed questions about the recent Caps transactions. I was out of the country and missed the next trade deadline for the first time in 20 years. I expected the Caps to stand pat and freaked (in a good way) when I finally got online to see what transpired. My thoughts...

Huet
Of all of them, I think the Huet acquisition is the most complex and interesting. So you ask, "Who will stay at the end of the season?"

I've been thinking long and hard about it and have no friggin' clue. I was chatting with Peaker about this (on the phone, because apparently he hasn't figured out how to use a computer yet). He thinks Olie is gone while I'm of the opinion that the Caps are more likely to show more a little more loyalty to Olie.

However, I think loyalty comes at a price. If they can sign Huet, and then sign Olie for cheap, they'll buy out Johnson. If Olie's pride gets the better of him, he'll walk and they keep Johnson for the last year of his contract. If they can't sign Huet, I think Machesney will get a serious look in camp.

I think it all rests on Huet and on how he feels about Washington's treatment of him and their future. If I were a betting man, which I ain't, he'll resign because it's a perfect situation for a 32 year old goalie... young team, will be really competitive for several more years, good ownership. After that the Caps will do what they feel is best for the organization. Does "best" mean "show loyalty to a great team guy that is a fan favorite" or "get the better bargain by paying a guy for games he'll actually play at an NHL level equal to many starters"?

Fedorov
I've been waiting for Sergei to become a Cap since... forever. Now it may be too late for him to really have a serious impact but it's entirely possible that he can rack up 15 points over the last 20 games playing with the talent the Caps have. If he is interested in a paycut and playing right wing next year, there's a chance he could stick around, but I don't see that as very likely.

Cooke
With the return of a Hunter-esque player into the fold, I foresee the Caps regaining some of the Scrapitals swagger of the 80's and 90's where there was agitating players sprinkled throughout the lineup. For $400K more, I think he's an upgrade on Pettinger. After he lost his scoring touch, his only real assets were his PK and speed. Let's see how Cooke does before resigning him. He should feel he's auditioning for a pretty good team which can't hurt his performance.

Giroux
This is the one deal I didn't like. I happened to think Motzko was a pretty crafty player with good speed, a scoring touch, and was a decent checker. I think he was underutilized as a utility player and instead was asked to play top offensive minutes where he struggled. Some examples? 1. on the top line with Ovechkin and not being able to score in two games 2. Manning the PP point.

So, we ship Motzko off for a smallish, skilled forward prospect... just what we need. This is a move whereby George sees more long-term value in Giroux than Motzko. He's younger and can provide some offense to a team come the next trade deadline. It's smart, but I would have liked to have seen Joe get a better shot at a starting gig in the NHL.