Brent Johnson on the "In the Slot" XM 204

Brent Johnson was on with Phil Esposito and Mike Ross on "In the Slot" on XM 204. The interview can be downloaded here. He talks about guys coming back from injury (specifically Semin and Fedorov) and who has the hardest shot. Have a listen.

Playing with the 2008-2009 Roster

I built a spreadsheet with Excel and imported it into Google Spreadsheets to help calculate the 2008-2009 opening night roster and it's cost. Currently, the Capitals have 14 people signed for next season. This number does not reflect UFAs (currently with Caps and those not) and RFAs.

Directions to use the spreadsheet:

1. Choose to "Edit this spreadsheet" by clicking on the link at the bottom of the page (permissions should be open)
2. To add a player to roster place a "1" next to their name in the "On Roster" column
3. If you're adding an RFA or UFA, be sure to give them a salary that they're worth for next season.
4. Be sure the Roster total number equals between 20 and 23 with rightful position totals represented
5. Keep the salary cap as low as possible AND get the best team

Giving Green a conservative bump to $5.5m and keeping Huet at around $5m, I'm getting a number around $54m which is awfully darn close to the expected salary cap. Will GM be spending that high or will assets need to be "shifted"? It should make for an interesting off-season.

Have fun.

(Thanks to NHLSCAP for the salary data).

Time to Drink a Beer and Chill Out

Flyers Series Recap
In retrospect, the flyers played a good series all the way around. I thought they were the more consistent team during the series and were the beneficiaries of the majority of the tight calls. A fan can whine about the calls and that's okay because its a defense mechanism much like the objects tossed on the ice are a sign of abject pain than a lack of respect for the Flyers (maybe with the exception of Briere). But I think once the pain goes away, you begin to realize that:

1. The Caps were seriously outplayed in the first three games yet stole one
2. The Flyers were too good to rollover for three straight games
3. Received stellar goaltending from Biron when it mattered most
4. Took advantage of mistakes; their Power Play was flawless

I think every Caps fan that knows the difference between a charge and a boarding call would take Mike Richards or Jeff Carter on the team in a Flash (heh, heh). If you ever listen to a player that has won the Stanley Cup, the three things they say that allowed them to prevail over other good teams are: consistency, team depth, and luck. Of those three, the Caps only had one in the first series. With better consistency next year, we'll make our own luck.

Sidenote: Capitals fans must notice the irony of game 1 of the Montreal-Philly game as the Flyers outplayed Montreal, but lost the game because of some perceived poor refereeing. Those that live in glass houses...

The End of the Season
Actually, now is the time when I don't need 5-6 beers per Caps game because quite simply, they don't exist. Now I can enjoy a single beer, relax, sleep easier and go about my day thinking about other things than Caps hockey. Some would find this peaceful and relaxing, I think it stinks.

I'm looking forward towards the draft, free agency, training camp, and opening night (in that order). Those dates are like vacations that seem so far away right now but you know will be here before you know it.

Decision Time
This offseason is perhaps the most important one in the club's rise from rebuild-to-juggernaut. Basing my figures from various sources such as NHLSCAP.com and the NHLPA, I figure the Caps paid out about $44M in salary this year (including Jagr). With the new contracts kicking in for Semin and Ovie, the Caps are already committed to $38M for next year before you factor in all the UFAs and RFAs on their current roster. Meaning that the $38M doesn't include a starting netminder (Olie or Huet), Mike Green, Brooks Laich, Boyd Gordon, Matt Bradley, Matt Cooke, Eminger, Morrisonn, Fehr, or Sergei Fedorov.

My quick take is that it's going to very difficult to sign everybody under the cap and have the requisite wiggle room that smart teams keep. This will lead to difficult decisions around the higher paid unsigned players such as Green, Fedorov, and Huet. My assumption here obviously is that Green will be one of the top paid players next year and should command a great deal of attention going into free agency if the Capitals do not get him under contract quickly. More on this later.

It's a Crap Game

I would have taken 30 cracks in the ribs with a pool cue or a thousand spiders simultaneously biting my nuts over losing the penguins game in THAT fashion. Aargh.

Whew. I'm done now complaining about the weekend. The games are in the past. I think Fedorov summed up the games best by reminding everybody that it's a game; an emotional game, but a game nonetheless. And if you look at the circumstances surrounding the games, I think the Capitals played very well in both. Boston was charged and ready for a fight to the end. They played hard and stuck around to the end waiting for the costly mistake. Then the Caps turn around less than 21 hours later and have to face a well-rested and tough Pens squad waiting for them in DC.

Huet played exceptionally. (I read somewhere that the Penguins only had 13 shots but we let in 2 goals for an .850 save% and therefore he played no better than Olie, but that's ludicrous considering that one goal was scored on a 2-on-1 and the other on powerplay rebound.) The Caps fired a multitude of point blank shots, crossbar ringers, and carried most of the play in both games, however, the could not score. This was a polar opposite to the 10-2 shellacking earlier in the week EVERYTHING went in. It was a law of averages and I wished (well after the fact, of course) that after we scored 5 against Boston we could have banked the next 5 by hitting more crossbars and posts. All the good ju-ju for the week was blown through Tim Thomas' disbelieving 1-through-7 holes on Tuesday night.

Another random observation is that the Caps sorely need a left-hand shot that can consistently score like Semin, Ovie, and Kozlov can from the right. Currently we have Laich, Fleischmann, Fedorov and Backstrom as our "legitimate" offensive theats from the left. Laich is becoming consistent for a goal every 3-4 games but the other 3 have ... umm, sucked? Is that the right word? I do believe it is.

If the Caps don't make the dance this year, I'll be dissappointed to be sure, but the world will not end. Hopefully they can come back to the rink, heed Sergei's "IT'S JUST A GAME" mantra and kick some ass from here out. This team was looking at a #1 overall pick just 4 months ago and is now playing above what anybody outside a few puck pundits and beltway believers thought was possible. Hopefully they can enjoy it.

A New Era Begins

I posed the question yesterday about the prevailing logic of giving Olaf the nod against the Leafs after such a strong showing from Toronto by the French Wall that is Cristobal . After sifting through the reams of responses that were posted.... (ahem.... crickets) I'VE looked into the crystal ball (crysto-ball?.. heh, heh, nevermind) and discerned Boudreau's thinking:

1. Don't disenfranchise the franchise man -- The message was "You're still important, Olie. We need you. You are our rock. We are nothing if you are not something." [sniff] I think I'm going to cry.


2. It's Toronto -- How many times have the Caps played the backup this year as the opposition sees the game as a chance to rest the #1? Did we take the Leafs too lightly? Does Semin take a hooking penalty every second time he makes a turnover?


3. Back-t0-back games -- A chance to rest after Friday's stellar performance and make Olie fight for playing time.

During last night's game, while the team lacked desperation for an appreciable amount of the game, Olie looked panicked throughout. On easy saves, he fumbled several into the air and would flail to knock them out of harm's way. If he was out of position, he was made frantic dives to get back into the net. At one point in the third after a puck had been deflected up and over his head, he threw his arms into the air while looking at a retreating defenseman as if to say:

"I don't know where it is."
"I'm not at fault here."
"You can't blame me if I get scored upon because you deflected it someplace I can't see it."

Olie made several key stops up close including a mini breakaway by Tucker and then an uptight stuff on Tlusty. However, when the Leafs scored some of the blame falls squarely on the goalie. The Antropov deflection was impossible to stop. The onus of deflections have to fall on the D for not clearing out. The second goal could have been stopped but wasn't. I'm not saying it was a soft goal, but Sundin's bullet was a rising shot over the glove hand and Olie was on his knees. The third goal was riddled with problems but the mishaps began with Olie shooting the puck hard into the boards. It ricocheted off Morrisonn into the slot. Green and Fedorov playing Keystone cops didn't help the recovery. I chalk 1.5 goals against to the D and 1. 5 to the goalie.

A more appropriate title to this post may be, "The End of an Era". Whatever the title, the message is the same: Olie is now the #2 in Washington. It's the coach's job to put the players on the ice that give his team the best chance to win the game. I just don't see Olie fitting the definition of "starting goaltender" any longer.

Caps Trade Analysis

A couple people posed questions about the recent Caps transactions. I was out of the country and missed the next trade deadline for the first time in 20 years. I expected the Caps to stand pat and freaked (in a good way) when I finally got online to see what transpired. My thoughts...

Huet
Of all of them, I think the Huet acquisition is the most complex and interesting. So you ask, "Who will stay at the end of the season?"

I've been thinking long and hard about it and have no friggin' clue. I was chatting with Peaker about this (on the phone, because apparently he hasn't figured out how to use a computer yet). He thinks Olie is gone while I'm of the opinion that the Caps are more likely to show more a little more loyalty to Olie.

However, I think loyalty comes at a price. If they can sign Huet, and then sign Olie for cheap, they'll buy out Johnson. If Olie's pride gets the better of him, he'll walk and they keep Johnson for the last year of his contract. If they can't sign Huet, I think Machesney will get a serious look in camp.

I think it all rests on Huet and on how he feels about Washington's treatment of him and their future. If I were a betting man, which I ain't, he'll resign because it's a perfect situation for a 32 year old goalie... young team, will be really competitive for several more years, good ownership. After that the Caps will do what they feel is best for the organization. Does "best" mean "show loyalty to a great team guy that is a fan favorite" or "get the better bargain by paying a guy for games he'll actually play at an NHL level equal to many starters"?

Fedorov
I've been waiting for Sergei to become a Cap since... forever. Now it may be too late for him to really have a serious impact but it's entirely possible that he can rack up 15 points over the last 20 games playing with the talent the Caps have. If he is interested in a paycut and playing right wing next year, there's a chance he could stick around, but I don't see that as very likely.

Cooke
With the return of a Hunter-esque player into the fold, I foresee the Caps regaining some of the Scrapitals swagger of the 80's and 90's where there was agitating players sprinkled throughout the lineup. For $400K more, I think he's an upgrade on Pettinger. After he lost his scoring touch, his only real assets were his PK and speed. Let's see how Cooke does before resigning him. He should feel he's auditioning for a pretty good team which can't hurt his performance.

Giroux
This is the one deal I didn't like. I happened to think Motzko was a pretty crafty player with good speed, a scoring touch, and was a decent checker. I think he was underutilized as a utility player and instead was asked to play top offensive minutes where he struggled. Some examples? 1. on the top line with Ovechkin and not being able to score in two games 2. Manning the PP point.

So, we ship Motzko off for a smallish, skilled forward prospect... just what we need. This is a move whereby George sees more long-term value in Giroux than Motzko. He's younger and can provide some offense to a team come the next trade deadline. It's smart, but I would have liked to have seen Joe get a better shot at a starting gig in the NHL.